Brazil in the year 2012 and beyond as the prototypical China.
It is not difficult to see why Brazil has so much potential that has been explored and exploited by the major powers in past history continuing into modern times. China has already met and exceeded expectations which shocked the world. The similarities between the two behemoths of a country lend to dissertations of optimism for Brazil, but, simultaneously, tell cautionary tales that might not even manifest. Ultimately, the differences will yield the most insight on whether or not Brazil could duplicate China’s success.
Similarities: Brazil vs. China. The similarities between Brazil and China are striking and all contribute to the reasons for all of the hype behind Brazil's destiny to match China's success. For instance, both countries have a large and growing middle class, protected domestic banks from the 2008 Financial Crisis, proved to be somewhat immune to global recession, and concerned with the weakening US dollar which affect exports. The geographic areas of the two countries are very similar with Brazil’s geographic area ranking 5th and China’s geographic area ranking 3rd/4th in the world. The population of Brazil ranks a distant 5th when compared to China’s dominates position as the country with the largest population in the world. Though, the GDP difference is quite large at $9.144 trillion dollars, the GDP per capital of Brazil actually exceeds China by $3,373 due to population differences.
Differences : Brazil vs. China. Despite the many similarities between the two nations, their differences in macroeconomic policies, culture, and factor endowments contribute the most to disparities in past GDP growth performances. Perhaps there will never be a way to determine exactly how those differences shaped the growth of the two countries, but when it is important to note that those differences may prove to be advantageous in one time period, but disastrous in another. China had begun its reforms in 1970 as opposed to Brazil’s reforms beginning in 1980. Even though, Brazil’s freer economy would seem to be more attractive to investors, but the fact that China has already begun its industrialization means that Brazil was already a decade behind. Brazil and China differ greatly in terms of culture due to drastically different histories. China has a rich history stretching back more than 5000 years that is heavily influenced by Confucian values.
Predictions for Brazil 2012 and beyond: When predicting Brazil’s future performance relative to China’s future performance, it is important to note that in the histories are increasingly intertwined and their fates are woven together as a result of rapid globalization. An exercise to predict if Brazil could outperform China 10 years ago is becoming a pointless task as the dynamics of world trade has shifted. For instance, in 2009, Brazil's top export partner is China at 15.2% and on the import side, China is Brazil's second highest import partner at 14.1%. China’s currency is expected to appreciate and the increased purchasing power will yield further demand for Brazil’s natural resources. The Brazil cost is being justified with the aid of Brazil’s government in the case of Foxconn’s proposed entrance into South American manufacturing. With the uncertain financial health of the European Union and the United States, the fact of the matter is that Brazil’s important trade partners, U.S. and China are facing great risks which imply that Brazil is exposed as well. Unfortunately for Brazil, the U.S. is still China’s primary trading partner. In the short term Brazil seems poised to perform well, but in the long-run as there are many uncertainties in the financial markets around the world, there are simply too many factors to consider making any conclusive statements about the long-term future of Brazil. Predictions concerning a deepening European recessions may also prove to hamper Brazilian growth. Ideally, if future Brazilian leaders from populist backgrounds are elected and choose to stay the course in terms of neoliberal macroeconomic policies, Brazil’s abundance of natural resources will lend to shield it from the potential impending chaos that may engulf the world.
Similarities: Brazil vs. China. The similarities between Brazil and China are striking and all contribute to the reasons for all of the hype behind Brazil's destiny to match China's success. For instance, both countries have a large and growing middle class, protected domestic banks from the 2008 Financial Crisis, proved to be somewhat immune to global recession, and concerned with the weakening US dollar which affect exports. The geographic areas of the two countries are very similar with Brazil’s geographic area ranking 5th and China’s geographic area ranking 3rd/4th in the world. The population of Brazil ranks a distant 5th when compared to China’s dominates position as the country with the largest population in the world. Though, the GDP difference is quite large at $9.144 trillion dollars, the GDP per capital of Brazil actually exceeds China by $3,373 due to population differences.
Differences : Brazil vs. China. Despite the many similarities between the two nations, their differences in macroeconomic policies, culture, and factor endowments contribute the most to disparities in past GDP growth performances. Perhaps there will never be a way to determine exactly how those differences shaped the growth of the two countries, but when it is important to note that those differences may prove to be advantageous in one time period, but disastrous in another. China had begun its reforms in 1970 as opposed to Brazil’s reforms beginning in 1980. Even though, Brazil’s freer economy would seem to be more attractive to investors, but the fact that China has already begun its industrialization means that Brazil was already a decade behind. Brazil and China differ greatly in terms of culture due to drastically different histories. China has a rich history stretching back more than 5000 years that is heavily influenced by Confucian values.
Predictions for Brazil 2012 and beyond: When predicting Brazil’s future performance relative to China’s future performance, it is important to note that in the histories are increasingly intertwined and their fates are woven together as a result of rapid globalization. An exercise to predict if Brazil could outperform China 10 years ago is becoming a pointless task as the dynamics of world trade has shifted. For instance, in 2009, Brazil's top export partner is China at 15.2% and on the import side, China is Brazil's second highest import partner at 14.1%. China’s currency is expected to appreciate and the increased purchasing power will yield further demand for Brazil’s natural resources. The Brazil cost is being justified with the aid of Brazil’s government in the case of Foxconn’s proposed entrance into South American manufacturing. With the uncertain financial health of the European Union and the United States, the fact of the matter is that Brazil’s important trade partners, U.S. and China are facing great risks which imply that Brazil is exposed as well. Unfortunately for Brazil, the U.S. is still China’s primary trading partner. In the short term Brazil seems poised to perform well, but in the long-run as there are many uncertainties in the financial markets around the world, there are simply too many factors to consider making any conclusive statements about the long-term future of Brazil. Predictions concerning a deepening European recessions may also prove to hamper Brazilian growth. Ideally, if future Brazilian leaders from populist backgrounds are elected and choose to stay the course in terms of neoliberal macroeconomic policies, Brazil’s abundance of natural resources will lend to shield it from the potential impending chaos that may engulf the world.
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